Oil prices dipped on Tuesday, cooling off after a nearly 2% rally in the prior session. Markets digested mixed signals from OPEC+’s upcoming supply hike and fresh concerns around the global demand outlook following U.S. President Donald Trump’s evolving trade stance.
Brent crude fell by 0.2% to $69.46 a barrel (as of 10:43 GMT).
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 0.4%, trading at $67.68.
This decline followed Trump’s announcement on Monday that higher U.S. tariffs will take effect on August 1, a move that could stifle global trade and reduce fuel consumption. However, the president later signaled the deadline was "not 100% firm," offering a glimmer of flexibility.
Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to boost output by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, marking a notable increase compared to the 411,000 bpd hikes seen in recent months. The alliance’s total rollback of the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts made since 2023 is nearly complete.
Looking ahead, the group is also expected to approve a further 550,000 bpd increase for September during its next meeting on August 3, according to Reuters.
This potentially oversupplied market has prompted analysts at HSBC and Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG) to revise their oil price forecasts lower. Commerzbank now sees Brent falling to $65 per barrel during the autumn months.
Despite the expected supply rise, tightness in middle distillates and ongoing Houthi attacks on Red Sea cargo traffic have helped keep downside pressure limited.
Traders also entered July with a bullish sentiment. According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, money managers increased their net-long crude oil futures and options positions in the week ending July 1.
For investors seeking detailed positioning and sentiment insights, the Commodities API offers up-to-date pricing and performance data for Brent, WTI, and other energy assets.
While summer travel season in the U.S. usually fuels peak demand, the broader market remains cautious. Trump’s evolving trade policy introduces significant uncertainty around global growth, a key factor for energy consumption.
To analyze how macroeconomic data influences energy demand, investors can refer to the Economics Calendar API, which tracks key indicators like global GDP, manufacturing PMI, and industrial output—all of which correlate with oil demand cycles.
Bottom Line: With OPEC+ accelerating its supply additions and U.S. trade tensions flaring, oil prices may face heightened volatility in the coming weeks. Investors should watch for developments in both tariff negotiations and OPEC+ supply policy ahead of the next production meeting on August 3.
