U.S. stock index futures fell sharply on Sunday evening as fears of an escalating trade war and inflationary pressures rattled investor confidence. The declines come after President Donald Trump imposed 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union, adding to a growing list of U.S. trading partners facing steep duties.
The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones futures all dropped 0.4%, setting a cautious tone ahead of a critical week featuring June’s consumer price index (CPI) data and the kickoff to Q2 earnings season.
Trump's weekend announcement included fresh 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, following a week of sweeping trade actions:
25% tariffs on Japan, South Korea, and Canada
50% tariff on Brazil
50% blanket duty on copper imports
The new tariffs, set to take effect on August 1, have significantly reduced the window for trade negotiations. Trump noted ongoing talks with South Korea and the EU, but reaffirmed he would not delay implementation further.
S&P 500 Futures: ↓ 0.4% to 6,274.0
Nasdaq 100 Futures: ↓ 0.4% to 22,859.0
Dow Jones Futures: ↓ 0.4% to 44,417.0
The S&P 500 index closed Friday at 6,259.75, down 0.3%—marking its second straight weekly loss. The Dow fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.2% as investor optimism gave way to macroeconomic concerns.
Newly released Treasury data showed that U.S. customs duty collections hit a record $113.3 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects this figure to top $300 billion by year-end, positioning tariffs as a major revenue stream.
However, economists warn that U.S. importers—not foreign exporters—are bearing the brunt of the cost, and may pass these expenses onto consumers, driving up inflation.
The broader inflation trend can be evaluated using the Economics Calendar API, which provides real-time updates on CPI, PPI, and other macroeconomic indicators affecting market sentiment.
The next big catalyst for markets is Tuesday’s release of U.S. CPI inflation data for June. Analysts expect both headline and core inflation to rise, with significant interest in whether tariffs are contributing to price pressures.
Core CPI YoY Estimate: 3.4%
Headline CPI YoY Estimate: 3.2%
Persistent inflation could derail investor hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts, despite President Trump’s repeated calls for easing. The Fed has cited tariff-driven uncertainty as one reason for holding interest rates steady, even as the White House amplifies political pressure on Chair Jerome Powell.
Tuesday also marks the official start of Q2 earnings season, with major banks leading the charge:
JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM)
Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC)
Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C)
Analysts expect a mixed quarter, with higher borrowing costs and slowing loan demand weighing on financials. But trading and wealth management revenue may offer upside surprises.
To track upcoming corporate earnings and stay informed on company-specific performance, the Earnings Calendar API provides a real-time snapshot of earnings announcements by sector and date.
With tariffs hitting multiple major economies, inflation accelerating, and earnings uncertainty rising, markets face a confluence of macro risks that could intensify volatility in the coming weeks.
Investors will be watching for:
Clear signs of inflation pass-through from tariffs
Fed commentary post-CPI release
Earnings guidance from systemically important banks
Should Tuesday’s CPI surprise to the upside, it may reinforce the Fed’s hawkish pause, pressuring equities and risk assets further.
Stay informed with:
Economics Calendar API for CPI and macro events
Earnings Calendar API for real-time earnings timelines across sectors
